Lots of predictions are being made – see here and here.

My own two-cents is that over the next few years, we’ll see that expansive/ double loop learning will increasingly be driven by self-directed, informal and social/ network learning activities – done by me for me, just in time, problem and reflection centred. Individuals will increasingly enable and develop such learning activities using social software applications that span the organisational firewall. Such personal learning environments will be part of the portfolio of knowledge assets that largely travels with an employee from employer to employer as well as being an embedded part of that individual’s day-to-day work practices.

On the other hand, the learning and development function (as an identifiable part of an organisations formal structure) may retrench in to being a transactional service providing adaptive and compliance based learning ‘events’. The alternative will involve, for many (albeit, not all), a significant change effort away from the delivery of learning to focus on identifying, developing and supporting agents of change/ agents of learning (Godkin 2008 ) to drive forward the development of capabilities in organisations.

Of course, like most predictions, I’m expecting this to be mostly wrong but with a small amount of ‘rightness’ to it which could prove to be very interesting….

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